The stakes in the 2024 election are not about the next four years...

This election will determine if the American experiment can be taken off life support and survive.

As we approach November 5th, the uncertainty surrounding the outcome of the 2024 Presidential Election is heightened by the risks of another Trump administration. Unlike in 2016, this time, he will have much better understanding of government and the guardrails he needs to dismantle to achieve his goals. His experience in government taught him that the people he surrounded himself with were obstacles to his plans.

This time around, Trump has made clear he will bring into office his most radical and extreme advisors, like Stephen Miller, as well as new ones like Robbert F. Kennedy Jr. This threat shouldn't be taken lightly, considering this is a man promising retribution to those fellow Americans he views as the enemies from within. Moreover, to understand what four more years (or more than that) would mean to the United States and the international order, let us look at the implications at home and abroad.

The Domestic Landscape

Four years of Trump in the White House taught us that his erratic behavior was the only predictable trait. His limited knowledge of government practices often showed in his outrageous statements. The presence of a few experienced operatives among his staff, we now know, was what prevented a more severe crisis in day-to-day governing. However, the consequences of his lack of understanding of government and respect for democratic values and principles were on clear display during his tenure.

The chaotic Trump administration was embroiled in legal challenges from the very beginning. The former president had a vast history of contesting challenges, starting with his resistance to observing norms and laws. The business practices that provided him with the background of a successful entrepreneur have been challenged by the reality of a failed business record and racist practices in the New York City real estate market.

There was no lack of scandal throughout his tenure, and plenty were severe enough to impact his administration, but nothing like when COVID-19 hit the country. The pandemic developed under his watch, and his denial made the crisis outlook seem grimmer. Concerns about how the pandemic could affect his reelection dragged the country down a dangerous path, with Trump refusing to address the public health crisis unraveling. The outcome was expected to be severe, but the country was not prepared for such crass behavior coming from the highest office in the land.

The election went to Joe Biden, primarily due to the irresponsible management of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, it is no less a fact that Trump's disdain for democracy and its practices was also at the center of the case to deny him a second term. The 2020 presidential election was a referendum on Trump's administration and his failures, including his attempts to avoid accountability for his management of the pandemic and the behavior that led to the first impeachment. Americans have memory-holed the continuous episodes of Trump or his staff trying to override procedures and norms he violated or simply ignored. However, in the campaign's final days, Trump's behavior is a reminder of the chaos engulfing his years in the White House.

Trump's ambitions to blowtorch the regulatory state have not seceded. If anything, it has become the center of his 2024 campaign, with Project 2025 outlining what a second administration would bring to the country. The dismantling of democracy, described throughout the blueprint developed by the Heritage Foundation, is the Conservative vision of a United States controlled by an elite driven by power, not principles. The damage control from his campaign has been ineffective, thanks to Trump's lack of self-restraint, amplifying the measures his administration would take from day one, starting with the massive deportation of undocumented immigrants to the issue of tariffs.

In the final stretch, Trump has given up on pitching his candidacy beyond the Republican Party's basis, not that it would be a successful strategy. The Madison Square Garden backlash continues to reverberate beyond the Puerto Rican community in the United States, adding to the impulse coming from an energized female electorate mobilized by the overturn of Roe vs. Wade. The stakes are high for Trump, as his criminal cases continue chasing him, as well as for the country, with the strength of American democracy put to the test once more.

The International Order

The November 5th presidential election is not only consequential for the American people. The election to the most powerful office in the world has tremendous consequences beyond the country. The erosion of democracy is a global crisis. Still, the effects of further deterioration under a second Trump presidency are not only making Europeans nervous, given that it would be all but certain Putin would end up annexing Ukraine and moving forward with his expansionist strategy.

The concerns of an escalation of the Israeli conflict with Hamas and Hezbollah extend to the certainty that Taiwan would also be in jeopardy. What we have is a grim picture of not only the isolationism Trump has advocated and practiced but also his alliance with the global illiberal axis.

Another Trump presidency would guarantee democracy's demise, at home and abroad, since Trump believes that the non-written norms Levitsky and Ziblatt (2018) describe as part of its guardrails are obstacles to his ambitions: All successful democracies rely on informal rules that, though not found in the constitution or any laws, are widely known and respected. In the case of American democracy, this has been vital.

Trump shattered unwritten norms, the soft guardrails of democracy, making the mutual toleration and institutional forbearance Levitsky and Ziblatt consider essential elements useless. When Trump insists on imposing tariffs on imported goods or threatening to leave NATO, he is renouncing playing the democratic game by antagonizing other players to the extent that there is no incentive to participate:

Think of democracy as a game that we want to keep playing indefinitely. To ensure future rounds, players must refrain from incapacitating the other team or antagonizing them to such a degree that they refuse to play again tomorrow (Levitsky and Ziblatt, p. 107).

Closing Arguments

This election will determine if the American experiment can be taken off life support and survive. The stakes are incredibly high, not only for minority groups but for all Americans whose lives are being put at risk to advance a political movement's goals that do not align with a majority of them. We are at the mercy of Americans who feel there is no incentive for them to vote, yet voting is the most effective way to make their voices heard.

American democracy has been a beacon, with its flaws and shortcomings, but it is still the country many have chosen to live in despite the challenges. Yet the anguish is tamed by the efforts of Democrats, former Republicans, and Independents who have understood what is at stake. Let us hope American democracy survives the threat posed by Trump and another opportunity to strengthen the guardrails is successful.