July 28th
An opportunity for a return to democracy in Venezuela
July 28th represents an opportunity for millions of Venezuelans, inside and outside the country, to restore their democracy. This call for presidential elections culminates a long, strenuous road full of obstacles and setbacks. The Opposition boycotted the previous presidential election (2018), and its results were rejected by most of the world's democracies due to the abuses and manipulation of Nicolás Maduro's regime to remain in power.
Maduro's lack of political legitimacy, his low approval ratings, a massive humanitarian catastrophe, and the exodus of almost 8 million Venezuelans fleeing the crisis converged in a scenario that forced the political regime not only to sit down to negotiate the lifting of the economic sanctions imposed during the Donald Trump administration but also to consider the electoral participation of the Opposition in the 2024 presidential election. A decision that under authoritarian regimes can put their permanence in power at risk or seal their perpetuity.
The Maduro regime's bet has undoubtedly been to exercise control over power to set the conditions for the Opposition's participation, from the disqualification of a large part of its leadership, with the obstruction of its internal processes and the cooptation of political parties, to the blocking of its campaign activities, contravening what was agreed in the Barbados negotiations.
Despite the difficulties for the Opposition, not only because of its internal shortcomings but also due to pressure from the political regime, opinion polls show an indisputable advantage for the unitary candidate, Edmundo González Urrutia. This is perhaps the most evident testimony of the democratic will of a country that has seen its political rights disappear at the hands of a regime that has dismantled political institutions in the last two decades, emptying it of processes and mechanisms to preserve them.
The struggle of Venezuelans, which does not culminate with the July 28th election, is not limited to 'removing' Maduro from power. The path to the return to democracy in Venezuela is just beginning, and an opposition victory would represent one of the many obstacles to overcome, considering that Chavismo will maintain its control of the Legislative, Judicial, and Citizen powers.
However, in a long-term process such as the one opening up in the country, the Opposition must be able to dispute Chavismo's hegemonic control, and the Presidency of the Republic is a first step.
How we got to July 28th
The electoral process of July 28th is the result of a strategic change in the Opposition, taking advantage of the need of Nicolás Maduro's regime to negotiate the lifting of economic sanctions imposed since 2019. The consequences of these punitive measures have undoubtedly contributed to deepening the country's financial difficulties, even though mismanagement, corruption, and deterioration of the operational capacity of the oil industry are the fundamental causes that precede this crisis. Donald Trump's administration imposed an aggressive package of economic sanctions that significantly limited the handling of President Joe Biden's foreign policy agenda towards Venezuela, whose administration has not been in favor of its use as a tool to promote regime change.
Within the framework of the negotiation process under the mediation of the government of Norway, with the blessing of the United States government, it was agreed to call presidential elections, with the commitment to allow the participation of the Opposition. However, Maduro's government has deployed all possible maneuvers to prevent opposition unity from consolidating, attacking the primaries held in 2023 and disqualifying the overwhelmingly elected leader, María Corina Machado.
Despite all the obstacles and Maduro's bet to fracture the opposition unity after having removed Machado from the presidential race, the main political actors of the Opposition rose to the circumstances in a show of maturity and commitment to the country's future. Overcoming the differences, confronting the factions of the Opposition close to the ruling party, and the limitations of mobilization and access to the media, Edmundo González Urrutia is currently ahead of Nicolás Maduro, representing for the first time in recent years, a real threat to their hold on power.
That advantage has become evident not only in the rallies González and Machado have led throughout the country but also in the reactions from the ruling party itself. Maduro, through the electoral power, revoked the invitation to the European Union observation mission, intensifying his violent discourse with threats of a 'bloodbath' if the Opposition triumphs. Alarms went off in the region, causing the presidents of Brazil and Chile, among others, to express their concern about Maduro's disregard for the will of Venezuelans.
What to expect on July 28th
July 28th will be a day full of hope and uncertainty. A large majority of Venezuelans who are committed to political change through peaceful and electoral means will go to vote. However, from the preamble to election day, the ruling party can be seen deploying its repressive tactics to discourage participation and block the work of witnesses and opposition poll representatives. As we know, one of the mechanisms to guarantee electoral transparency, much more so in authoritarian contexts, is the participation of International Observers. Maduro's government has significantly limited its presence, being circumscribed to the UN Panel of Electoral Experts and the Carter Center as technical missions with government authorization after the impasse with the European Union. For its part, national observation has also been reduced with the participation of only four organizations accredited by the electoral body, leaving the rest of the civil society actors with expertise in electoral monitoring excluded from a formal role in the process.
Citizen participation will be essential, so manipulating the polling stations will be among the ruling party's objectives. In this scenario, observation is a crucial tool to guarantee the transparency of the process. Given the lack of confidence in the electoral registry and the impact of almost 8 million Venezuelans outside the country, the lack of precision about the electoral roll may need to be reflected in opinion studies. However, as Felix Seijas puts it, a greater turnout would widen the gap between the two candidates, favoring González Urrutia.
The outcome will depend on the percentage of participation on election day and, subsequently, on the ability of the Opposition to safeguard the minutes that certify the result per polling station in case, there is the intention of ignoring the general result. In this scenario, the role of international observers and those of regional leaders Lula da Silva, Gustavo Petro, and Gabriel Boric with moral influence over Nicolás Maduro will be critical. International pressure must be on the menu of options to convince the ruling party, in the event of a defeat, of the willingness of the international community to take drastic measures if the Maduro regime does not desist in the intention of not recognizing the results of the election.
Finally, even though it is the least likely scenario, the Opposition would have to continue to push for a peaceful and electoral solution if there is an adverse result under conditions of transparency. Despite past experiences, we are facing an opposition leadership that has learned from the consequences of seeking alternative political negotiation methods. Venezuelans' hope for political change is placed in an electoral process where the only thing they demand is that the government of Nicolás Maduro allow them to vote without coercion and with freedom.