Information warfare
Russian and Chinese strategies for disinformation
The past decade has seen a significant shift in how authoritarian regimes like Russia and China operate in the global information space thanks to the variety of digital platforms at their disposal and through the opening brought by weak democratic institutions. These regimes have increasingly turned to sharp power to engage in disinformation and misinformation warfare to shape narratives and meddle in domestic politics abroad, especially targeting western-style democracies. They share commonalities, specifically regarding the nature of their regimes, making them successful in confronting democracy and sowing distrust among people living under eroding democracies.
Russian actors have been particularly successful in their efforts to undermine democracy. They have developed a methodology across multiple platforms, from social media bots and trolls to cyberattacks and disseminating false information. They have also increased the deployment of political propaganda to discredit democratic institutions, stirring discord among citizens. We can identify this practice during the 2016 US presidential election and the Catalonian referendum in 2017. More recently, the war in Ukraine has again exposed the strategic value of controlling the narrative for the Kremlin. The intricate network of media outlets disseminating the Russian version of the invasion has a broad influence on its closest allies and uninformed actors that become channels for these disinformation efforts unwittingly.
The Russian operation is not sophisticated, but it is a massive coordinated effort that starts at the very top, with official social media accounts sharing false narratives later picked up by allies and associates. The message is essential, but so is the laundering and legitimizing process to infuse falsehoods into the information stream. Russian disinformation has also been very effective in penetrating the domestic environment in the United States, pitting Americans against each other.
On the other hand, Chinese actors have focused on controlling the narrative around China's rise as a global power. Through state-controlled media and an online propaganda machine, the Chinese regime has followed the footsteps of the Russian disinformation efforts in what has been characterized by Charon and Jeangène Vilmer (2021) as the “Russification” of Chinese influence operations. They also rely heavily on foreign media outlets and, like Russia, are investing in shaping the narrative in countries critical to its rising profile. The war in Ukraine has exposed China's ambiguous role; while alleging neutrality, its state-controlled media is amplifying Russian disinformation, avoiding expressions like ‘war’ and instead adopting the euphemism of a ‘special operation.’
The success or failure of these efforts depends on a range of systemic factors, including the openness of a country's media environment, social and political polarization, and the resilience of democratic institutions. In countries with weak democratic institutions and polarized populations, authoritarian actors are more successful in attacking democracy. At the same time, in countries with solid democratic institutions and organized civil society, these actors are unlikely to be effective.
Global authoritarianism reinforces information warfare by framing it as a national defense initiative. They argue that Western democracies have used their media and information networks to spread their values while undermining others. In their view, these actions defend against Western aggression in the information space.
The narratives used by authoritarian actors adjust depending on the region. In the Middle East, Russia is strongly allied with the authoritarian regimes of Syria and Iran while simultaneously presenting itself as a counterbalance to the United States. In Europe, the Kremlin has focused on exploiting existing social and political divisions to undermine democratic institutions. Conversely, Chinese actors have sought to present themselves as a rising power providing an alternative model to Western-style democracy. In Latin America, the region's 'calculated ambiguity’ (Chaguaceda, 2023) has shown the profound political influence of an alternative narrative pushed by these two illiberal forces. The neutral stances these regimes continue to argue regarding the Ukrainian conflict are questionable, especially considering Russia's interests in the region.
In conclusion, information warfare led by the authoritarian regimes of Russia and China is impacting democracies worldwide. These regimes have successfully attacked democracy by employing diverse strategies and exploiting weaknesses in democratic institutions. The success or failure of these efforts depends on a range of systemic factors, including the openness of a country's media environment and social and political polarization within society. Global authoritarianism reinforces information warfare by framing it as a national defense of their interests. The challenge for democracies worldwide is to develop effective strategies to counter these disinformation efforts while protecting their core democratic values.